Dawn broke over the small mining town of Jagersfontein in South Africa's Free State Province on September 11, 2022. For years, this historic diamond mining region had lived in the shadow of enormous tailings dams—massive structures holding back millions of cubic meters of mining waste. On this particular Sunday morning, residents went about their usual routines, unaware that disaster was imminent.
The Collapse
At approximately 6:00 AM, the unthinkable happened. A section of the Jagersfontein tailings dam wall catastrophically failed. Within minutes, more than 50 million cubic meters of toxic slurry—enough to fill 20,000 Olympic swimming pools—surged through the community. The mudflow, traveling at devastating speeds, carved a destructive path over 4 kilometres wide and 8 kilometres long.
The torrent of mud and water destroyed over 100 houses, damaged critical infrastructure, and took the lives of 3 people while injuring hundreds more. Over 1,000 residents found themselves suddenly displaced, their livelihoods washed away in an instant.
The Aftermath
In the aftermath, the devastation was overwhelming. The toxic sludge contaminated the Prosesspruit River, threatening water supplies for communities downstream. Farmland was rendered unusable. The economic damage exceeded $20 million, while the environmental impact will persist for decades.
As authorities and mining executives gathered to assess what went wrong, one question echoed through every conversation: Could this disaster have been prevented?
Rewind the Clock
What if we could turn back time? What if we could see the warning signs that were invisible to the naked eye but detectable from space?
Our team at Geofem decided to investigate. Using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar—or InSAR—we analysed satellite data captured over the Jagersfontein facility between January 2021 and August 2022, the months leading up to the disaster.
"With this satellite technology actively monitoring the facility, engineers could have had advanced warning of the collapse—enough time to evacuate communities."
The Invisible Warning Signs
What we discovered was remarkable. The earth had been showing signs of instability for months. Our analysis revealed concerning ground movements precisely at the location where the breach would eventually occur.
At the eastern perimeter, we detected displacement of 57 millimetres—about the width of a golf ball—over the 20 months preceding the collapse. Even more telling, the northern section showed movements of 114 millimetres, nearly the height of a standard smartphone.
These movements, invisible to anyone standing on the ground, were clear signals of instability when viewed from above.
"The earth had been showing signs of instability for months. Our analysis revealed concerning ground movements precisely at the location where the breach would eventually occur."
The Prediction Model
Using a specialised remote sensing technique called the Inverse Velocity method, we applied these measurements to predict when a failure might occur. The results were sobering. The data pointed to a failure window that matched the actual collapse to within just two weeks.
In other words, with this satellite technology actively monitoring the facility, engineers could have had advanced warning of the collapse—enough time to investigate further, reinforce the structure, or even evacuate communities if necessary.
A Global Challenge
The Jagersfontein disaster is not an isolated incident. Around the world, there are over 12,000 tailings storage facilities, many located near communities and crucial ecosystems. Between 2000 and 2022, we've witnessed over 35 major tailings dam failures globally, claiming hundreds of lives and causing billions in damages.
The 2019 Brumadinho dam disaster in Brazil alone killed 270 people and released 12 million cubic meters of mining waste into the environment. The 2014 Mount Polley failure in Canada discharged 25 million cubic meters of contaminated water and slurry into nearby lakes and rivers.
A New Approach
Traditional monitoring relies on periodic site visits and limited ground sensors. But tailings dams are massive structures, often spanning several square kilometres. Ground-based methods simply cannot provide the comprehensive coverage needed.
Satellite monitoring offers a revolutionary alternative. By capturing data every few days from 800 kilometres above Earth, InSAR technology can detect millimetre-scale movements across the entire facility. It works in all weather conditions, day and night, providing continuous surveillance without requiring personnel on site.
The Promise of Prevention
While we cannot change what happened at Jagersfontein, we can learn from it. Since implementing satellite monitoring at other facilities, early warning signs have been detected and addressed before they could develop into disasters.
"When it comes to protecting communities and the environment, seeing the invisible can make all the difference."
A Safer Future
As rebuilding continues in Jagersfontein, we're reminded that some disasters are not inevitable—they're predictable and preventable. The technology exists today to see what human eyes cannot, to hear what the earth is telling us before it's too late.
At Geofem, we believe that by combining satellite technology with engineering expertise, we can help prevent the next Jagersfontein. Because when it comes to protecting communities and the environment, seeing the invisible can make all the difference.
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